On 27 September 2009, the Chinese government issued a white paper on its minority nationalities policy. A Tibetan response has now been written by a group of officials of the Central Tibetan Administration and the Tibetan Centre for Human Rights and Democracy, a Dharamsala-based human rights watchdog, addressing four areas: 1) The Status of Learning, Using and promoting Tibetan Language; 2) The Status of Tibetan Cultural Preservation in Tibet; 3) The Status of Religious Freedom in Tibet; and 4) The Status of Modern Scientific Education and Development of the Media inside Tibet.
A forward to the report states that "a substantial amount of evidence has been meticulously put together to make a compelling case that the Chinese government has committed — and is committing — nothing less than cultural genocide on the world's roof. This evidence is sourced primarily from the documents brought out by the Chinese government itself, and also from the oral and written statements, opinions or suggestions made by Tibetans inside Tibet. Viewpoints of the Tibetan exiles and foreign experts or scholars on Tibet are deliberately not included."
Click here to read the full report in PDF format released on 13 November 2009.
2009-11-03
Five political risks to watch in China
China has so far weathered the global economic downturn with its growth rate staying robust and no sign the government faces any major challenge to its rule. Following is a summary of key China risks to watch:
* GOVERNMENT STABILITY
China's government has so far maintained general authority and control, despite predictions that the global crisis could spark widespread unrest among laid-off workers. Outbreaks of unrest have remained brief and localised, and recent economic data point to robust growth for the rest of the year and into next year. But with China's ruling Communist Party and global markets all treating political stability as a crucial issue, even limited challenges to the Party's control could have a impact on investor sentiment. A longer-term worry could be that the recent rapid economic growth cannot be sustained, as a burst of government-encouraged credit shrinks, leading to a rise in joblessness and investor disquiet and sapping government spending-power and ability to cushion these problems. Ethnic tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang have distracted the central government and drawn international concern, but not seriously threatened national stability. Calls from some activists and intellectuals for greater openness and democracy have so far failed to gain much popular traction.
Key issues to watch:
-- Emergence of any regional- or national-level protest movements. So far, protests in China have been tended to be localised and directed at local officials, rather than challenging the central government. Given China's strict controls, it is also very difficult for any organised movement to emerge beyond the local level.
* TRADE AND CURRENCY DISPUTES
Simmering disputes with the United States and other nations over trade barriers and the level of the yuan have the potential of escalating into more serious confrontations that could unsettle investors and capital markets. Most analysts believe that Beijing and Washington have too much to lose from a major escalation of trade and currency disputes, at a time when much rests on how these two big economic powers navigate the adjustments brought by the financial crisis. China has signalled that ultimately it wants a global financial order that is less dependent on the U.S. dollar. That remains a distant prospect and China is likely to maintain its huge holdings of U.S. Treasury debt for a long time, but currency markets have shown acute sensitivity to any signs, however mild or misrepresented, that China is looking to reduce its holdings. [ID:nN14510480]
Key issues to watch:
-- The rhetoric on trade from Washington and Beijing. Both sides want to avoid any serious economic dispute but also want to protect their domestic industry and maintain popular support at home. Signs that positions are hardening would hurt markets.
-- How disagreements are handled. The imposition of trade barriers usually results in retaliation from other nations. The key issue is whether a tit-for-tat spiral of protectionist measures gets out of hand, or whether diplomacy stops disputes from escalating and doing serious damage.
* SECURING STRATEGIC SUPPLIES
China has been scouring the globe for energy and commodities to feed its economic growth, and has sought to secure strategic long-term supply deals. Its resource needs have major long-term implications for commodity and energy prices. And across the world, China is not just buying raw materials but is seeking to invest in countries and companies that produce them. This has transformed China's global economic and political role -- and many other nations are getting worried. [ID:nPEK46626]
Key issues to watch:
-- Reaction to Chinese foreign investment. The U.S. decision to block CNOOC's takeover of Unocal on national security concerns, and the acrimonious aftermath of the collapse of Rio Tinto's deal with Chinalco, demonstrate how political issues may undermine China's economic aspirations. Markets will be watching to see if more major deals are blocked -- and how China responds.
-- Attitudes to China in developing world. Chinese investment has given a boost to many developing economies, but there are also signs of a backlash emerging in some countries.
* THE ENVIRONMENT
China is central to efforts to win agreement on fighting climate change. Beijing has pledged to cut "carbon intensity" over the decade to 2020, but also says economic development must come first and developed nations should bear most of the responsibility for reducing global emissions. China's rapid growth is also causing a host of other environmental problems, and citizens have become increasingly vocal about health and other worries from lead plants and other polluters. [ID:nPEK320434]
Key issues to watch:
-- China's position on emissions. Markets will watch if China can agree an emissions policy without stifling growth.
-- Investors will also be looking for opportunities that arise from growing investment and government spending in clean and renewable energy.
-- Increasing environmental activism and stricter enforcement of standards could force some industrial projects to be closed or not built.
* CORRUPTION, ACCOUNTABILITY AND COMPANY BEHAVIOUR
Corruption is an issue both for foreign investors in China and for national stability -- it has the potential to become a focus for social unrest if it is not adequately tackled. As well, with business and politics so closely intertwined in China, commercial negotiations and disputes can become embroiled in wider political and diplomatic friction. The claims of commercial spying by Rio Tinto have underscored these concerns.
Key issues to watch:
-- Corruption estimates. Investors will be watching to see whether China rises or falls in corruption perception rankings.
-- Investors will closely watch China's handling of the case involving four Rio Tinto staff, and also more general signs of how the government intends to handle the boundary between business deals and politics.
Compiled by Andrew Marshall and Chris Buckley
BEIJING, Tue Nov 3, 2009 (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP202734
* GOVERNMENT STABILITY
China's government has so far maintained general authority and control, despite predictions that the global crisis could spark widespread unrest among laid-off workers. Outbreaks of unrest have remained brief and localised, and recent economic data point to robust growth for the rest of the year and into next year. But with China's ruling Communist Party and global markets all treating political stability as a crucial issue, even limited challenges to the Party's control could have a impact on investor sentiment. A longer-term worry could be that the recent rapid economic growth cannot be sustained, as a burst of government-encouraged credit shrinks, leading to a rise in joblessness and investor disquiet and sapping government spending-power and ability to cushion these problems. Ethnic tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang have distracted the central government and drawn international concern, but not seriously threatened national stability. Calls from some activists and intellectuals for greater openness and democracy have so far failed to gain much popular traction.
Key issues to watch:
-- Emergence of any regional- or national-level protest movements. So far, protests in China have been tended to be localised and directed at local officials, rather than challenging the central government. Given China's strict controls, it is also very difficult for any organised movement to emerge beyond the local level.
* TRADE AND CURRENCY DISPUTES
Simmering disputes with the United States and other nations over trade barriers and the level of the yuan have the potential of escalating into more serious confrontations that could unsettle investors and capital markets. Most analysts believe that Beijing and Washington have too much to lose from a major escalation of trade and currency disputes, at a time when much rests on how these two big economic powers navigate the adjustments brought by the financial crisis. China has signalled that ultimately it wants a global financial order that is less dependent on the U.S. dollar. That remains a distant prospect and China is likely to maintain its huge holdings of U.S. Treasury debt for a long time, but currency markets have shown acute sensitivity to any signs, however mild or misrepresented, that China is looking to reduce its holdings. [ID:nN14510480]
Key issues to watch:
-- The rhetoric on trade from Washington and Beijing. Both sides want to avoid any serious economic dispute but also want to protect their domestic industry and maintain popular support at home. Signs that positions are hardening would hurt markets.
-- How disagreements are handled. The imposition of trade barriers usually results in retaliation from other nations. The key issue is whether a tit-for-tat spiral of protectionist measures gets out of hand, or whether diplomacy stops disputes from escalating and doing serious damage.
* SECURING STRATEGIC SUPPLIES
China has been scouring the globe for energy and commodities to feed its economic growth, and has sought to secure strategic long-term supply deals. Its resource needs have major long-term implications for commodity and energy prices. And across the world, China is not just buying raw materials but is seeking to invest in countries and companies that produce them. This has transformed China's global economic and political role -- and many other nations are getting worried. [ID:nPEK46626]
Key issues to watch:
-- Reaction to Chinese foreign investment. The U.S. decision to block CNOOC's takeover of Unocal on national security concerns, and the acrimonious aftermath of the collapse of Rio Tinto's deal with Chinalco, demonstrate how political issues may undermine China's economic aspirations. Markets will be watching to see if more major deals are blocked -- and how China responds.
-- Attitudes to China in developing world. Chinese investment has given a boost to many developing economies, but there are also signs of a backlash emerging in some countries.
* THE ENVIRONMENT
China is central to efforts to win agreement on fighting climate change. Beijing has pledged to cut "carbon intensity" over the decade to 2020, but also says economic development must come first and developed nations should bear most of the responsibility for reducing global emissions. China's rapid growth is also causing a host of other environmental problems, and citizens have become increasingly vocal about health and other worries from lead plants and other polluters. [ID:nPEK320434]
Key issues to watch:
-- China's position on emissions. Markets will watch if China can agree an emissions policy without stifling growth.
-- Investors will also be looking for opportunities that arise from growing investment and government spending in clean and renewable energy.
-- Increasing environmental activism and stricter enforcement of standards could force some industrial projects to be closed or not built.
* CORRUPTION, ACCOUNTABILITY AND COMPANY BEHAVIOUR
Corruption is an issue both for foreign investors in China and for national stability -- it has the potential to become a focus for social unrest if it is not adequately tackled. As well, with business and politics so closely intertwined in China, commercial negotiations and disputes can become embroiled in wider political and diplomatic friction. The claims of commercial spying by Rio Tinto have underscored these concerns.
Key issues to watch:
-- Corruption estimates. Investors will be watching to see whether China rises or falls in corruption perception rankings.
-- Investors will closely watch China's handling of the case involving four Rio Tinto staff, and also more general signs of how the government intends to handle the boundary between business deals and politics.
Compiled by Andrew Marshall and Chris Buckley
BEIJING, Tue Nov 3, 2009 (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP202734
2009-08-17
Can Beijing Bring Order to Its Restive Provinces?
Recent violence in China's western provinces shows that the state's dual policy of migration and development has failed. A political solution for Xinjiang and Tibet, however, could be closer than Beijing may think. Christian Le Mière, in this month's Foreign Affairs journal, argues that the best approach may already exist: China could expand the category of Special Administrative Regions (SARs), which now exist in Hong Kong and Macau, to the country's western provinces.
According to the laws establishing the SARs, the territories are afforded "a high degree of autonomy" and "executive, legislative, and independent judicial power." In addition, the SAR arrangement requires security forces to be comprised of local citizens, while residents inside SARs are granted protections covering freedom of speech, press, assembly, privacy, and, perhaps most significant if such a program were to be adopted in Tibet, religion. The checks and balances built into the SARs' governance allows for the guarantee of these rights far more effectively than under the Chinese constitution, which nominally provides similar freedoms.
The creation of SARs in Xinjiang and Tibet would not just be in the interest of local populations; the Communist Party leadership would also benefit. Beijing would retain control over foreign affairs and defense and keep the right to station military forces in the regions. Even more important, the law establishing the SARs dictates that the "land and natural resources within the [SAR] shall be state property."
Such an arrangement would remove another thorn in Beijing's side -- the international attention and opprobrium created by the Dalai Lama's ongoing exile. The Dalai Lama would likely accept such a solution; the SAR closely resembles his own "middle way" negotiating position, which cedes the claim to full Tibetan independence and instead calls for "genuine autonomy." In any future Tibetan SAR, the Dalai Lama would likely be less of a problem for Beijing in the region than outside of it.
Read the complete article here.
According to the laws establishing the SARs, the territories are afforded "a high degree of autonomy" and "executive, legislative, and independent judicial power." In addition, the SAR arrangement requires security forces to be comprised of local citizens, while residents inside SARs are granted protections covering freedom of speech, press, assembly, privacy, and, perhaps most significant if such a program were to be adopted in Tibet, religion. The checks and balances built into the SARs' governance allows for the guarantee of these rights far more effectively than under the Chinese constitution, which nominally provides similar freedoms.
The creation of SARs in Xinjiang and Tibet would not just be in the interest of local populations; the Communist Party leadership would also benefit. Beijing would retain control over foreign affairs and defense and keep the right to station military forces in the regions. Even more important, the law establishing the SARs dictates that the "land and natural resources within the [SAR] shall be state property."
Such an arrangement would remove another thorn in Beijing's side -- the international attention and opprobrium created by the Dalai Lama's ongoing exile. The Dalai Lama would likely accept such a solution; the SAR closely resembles his own "middle way" negotiating position, which cedes the claim to full Tibetan independence and instead calls for "genuine autonomy." In any future Tibetan SAR, the Dalai Lama would likely be less of a problem for Beijing in the region than outside of it.
Read the complete article here.
2009-07-08
NYT Editorial: Beijing's tragic mishandling of ethnic minorities
The more Chinese authorities try to stamp out protests by repressed ethnic minorities, the fiercer those protests grow. Beijing should have learned that lesson after last year’s bloody anti-Chinese riots in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa. It didn’t. This week, clashes in Xinjiang between Muslim Uighurs and Han Chinese have left at least 156 dead and more than 1,000 wounded.
This round of trouble began on Sunday when Uighurs took to the street to demand a government inquiry into an earlier brawl between Uighurs, the region’s largest ethnic group, and the Han, the country’s dominant group. We don’t know who is responsible for that protest turning violent. On Tuesday, Han Chinese clutching meat cleavers, pipes and clubs spilled down side streets of the Xinjiang capital looking for Uighurs to target.
The Uighurs have long been mistreated. Beijing has invested heavily over the last decade to exploit the region’s rich oil and gas deposits and at the same time financed a huge influx of Han migrants.
Amnesty International said recently that the Uighurs’ identity and well-being are being “systematically eroded” by government policies that limit the use of the Uighur language, restrict religious practices and foster job discrimination. It accused Beijing of arresting thousands of Uighurs on bogus terrorism charges.
We accept that the Chinese government must protect lives and property. But its efforts once again to control all information — cellphone and Internet services in Xinjiang have been cut while officials have escorted reporters to the scene so they can “spin” the story — are cynical and futile. So are its efforts to blame a Uighur activist living in the United States for the unrest (much like it blamed the Dalai Lama for the unrest in Tibet).
China must ensure a transparent investigation of the violence and respect the rights of anyone who has been arrested. It must work toward political solutions that give Uighurs, Tibetans and other minority groups more autonomy over their lives. Beijing’s rulers will never achieve the stability they covet until they deal with the root causes of these problems.
New York Times Editorial: "Now Xinjiang", July 7, 2009
This round of trouble began on Sunday when Uighurs took to the street to demand a government inquiry into an earlier brawl between Uighurs, the region’s largest ethnic group, and the Han, the country’s dominant group. We don’t know who is responsible for that protest turning violent. On Tuesday, Han Chinese clutching meat cleavers, pipes and clubs spilled down side streets of the Xinjiang capital looking for Uighurs to target.
The Uighurs have long been mistreated. Beijing has invested heavily over the last decade to exploit the region’s rich oil and gas deposits and at the same time financed a huge influx of Han migrants.
Amnesty International said recently that the Uighurs’ identity and well-being are being “systematically eroded” by government policies that limit the use of the Uighur language, restrict religious practices and foster job discrimination. It accused Beijing of arresting thousands of Uighurs on bogus terrorism charges.
We accept that the Chinese government must protect lives and property. But its efforts once again to control all information — cellphone and Internet services in Xinjiang have been cut while officials have escorted reporters to the scene so they can “spin” the story — are cynical and futile. So are its efforts to blame a Uighur activist living in the United States for the unrest (much like it blamed the Dalai Lama for the unrest in Tibet).
China must ensure a transparent investigation of the violence and respect the rights of anyone who has been arrested. It must work toward political solutions that give Uighurs, Tibetans and other minority groups more autonomy over their lives. Beijing’s rulers will never achieve the stability they covet until they deal with the root causes of these problems.
New York Times Editorial: "Now Xinjiang", July 7, 2009
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